What is the key to successful sports betting?


That’s the chart of William Hill’s annual revenue and gains for the last four decades. If I had been less incompetent at using Google to retrieve historic results I’d have gone further, and you’d have seen the consistency goes way beyond the last four years. They always make money. They are a money-making machine.

They’re a bookmaker. You understand how”the house always wins”? Well that is exactly what this chart is showing you.

Those of you who have not moved on in disgust in the bait-and-switch answer you think you are reading are probably asking something such as”ha bloody ha Groves…you know that’s not what the question means. It means”how can I win consistently in sports gambling?”

I do understand that, yes. And there’s a point here. The purpose is that when the bookmakers always triumph, which essentially they do, all you need to do to win is do exactly what the bookmakers do.

Alright, so today you are perhaps thinking”that’s all well smartarse, but I am not just planning to go out and open a chain of betting shops over the upcoming few decades and gradually develop a profitable company now am I?” (ah I visit! You would like to always win, however you don’t wish to really need to do any job to make it happen? Gotcha).

That is missing the point however. You don’t have to start a chain of betting shops, fortunately. You have to recognize the underlying reasons why the bookie wins, and copy those.

Reason number one that the bookie wins: He does his homework. He utilizes information that empowers him to gauge, with greater accuracy than the people he’s betting with, what the true chances of any particular outcome are. He’s all of the information he can find, and he’s computer models to populate that information.

All this you can do yourself. You simply need to be ready to put that effort in. It’s difficult to accumulate this much information, and build these kind of versions, but it’s possible. I’ve done it. It may be accomplished.

Reason number two the bookie wins: He”charges” individuals to wager. The odds he offers do not add up to an implied probability of 100%, the remainder being potential profit for its bookie (known as the”vig” in the US). Based on the event he might be charging a couple of percentage points (so on average he’ll earn $2 for every $100 bet) to a couple of hundred percent points (so on average he’ll earn $200 for every $100 bet). It is dependent upon his certainty around his estimate, how dodgy he is, how idiotic he thinks his punters are, how much rivalry he has, etc.

You can kind of do that yourself, but it is not quite so simple. Fortunately you do not need to benefit from the gain source so much as ensure it is not a gain drain. One method to do this is to cut out the middleman by placing your bets in a market such as Betfair where you can actually act as a price-maker as opposed to a price-taker. Because it is a market, you can’t always get paid to put on the stakes you want, but sometimes you can, and overall you pay less to play than you would if you went into a traditional bookie. You might even reduce the vig by shopping around and gambling with all the best priced bookie, rather than going to the same place for all your stakes.

There are several other things also, but these are the crucial things you need to deal with. So that the bookie makes money by incorporating the gains from understanding the chances better to the gains from being paid the vig. The way you are going to earn money is by making certain the losses from paying the vig are significantly less than the gains from knowing the chances better. It is just maths.

You even have an advantage over the bookies that will help you. That’s the benefit of not having to bet. Bookies are anticipated to make economies on a whole host of sporting occasions, and honour those costs if someone attempts to bet on them. You do not need to do this. You can concentrate on the stuff which you can understand better, that you have great data on, that you have versions that offer good chances estimates on. It’s possible to sit and wait for the times the bookies get it wrong, because among all of the sound they do make it wrong occasionally. You wait, and you wait, and you wait as long as you want to wait. Then you wager. And you do so with the odds in your favor and vig eliminated as much as possible.

Should you do so, then you are using the very same items that the bookie uses to win consistently. And as all of us know,”the house always wins”.

Does this seem like a lot of effort? Perhaps, right? It’s not straightforward. It isn’t quick. It’s not a get-rich-quick strategy. * However, this is surely a way to win consistently at sports gambling.

Read more here: http://operationsmanager.com/?p=11225