That is the graph of William Hill’s annual revenue and gains for the last four years. If I had been incompetent at using Google to retrieve historic results I would have gone further, and you would have noticed the consistency goes far beyond the last four decades. They constantly make money. They are a money-making machine.
They’re a bookmaker. You know how”the house always wins”? Well that’s exactly what this graph is showing you.
Those of you who have not moved on in disgust in the bait-and-switch answer you think you are reading are probably asking something such as”ha bloody ha Groves…you realize that’s not exactly what the question means. This means”how do I win consistently at sports betting?”
I do understand that, yes. And there’s a point . The purpose is that when the bookmakers always triumph, which essentially they perform, all you need to do to win is do exactly what the bookmakers do.
Alright, so today you are perhaps thinking”that is all well smartarse, but I am not just going to go out and open a chain of betting shops during the upcoming several decades and gradually build up a profitable company today am I?” (ah I visit! You would like to always win, however you do not want to actually need to do any work to make it take place? Gotcha).
That is missing the point however. You don’t need to start a chain of betting shops, fortunately. You need to identify the underlying reasons why the bookie wins, and replicate those.
Reason number one the bookie wins: He does his homework. He utilizes information that empowers him to estimate, with greater precision than the folks he is gambling with, what the true chances of any specific outcome are. He’s all the data he can find, and he’s computer models to populate that data.
All this you can do yourself. You just need to be prepared to put that campaign in. It is difficult to collect this much information, and build these types of models, but it is possible. I’ve done it. It may be accomplished.
Reason number two the bookie wins: He”fees” individuals to bet. The odds that he offers don’t add up to an estimated probability of 100%, the rest being possible profit for the bookie (known as the”vig” in the US). Depending on the event he may be charging two or three percentage points (so on average he’ll earn $2 for each $100 bet) to a couple of hundred percentage points (so on average he’ll earn $200 for each $100 wager ). It is dependent upon his certainty around his estimate, how dodgy he’s, how dumb he thinks his punters are, how much competition he has, and so on.
You can sort of do this yourself, but it’s not quite so easy. Luckily you don’t have to benefit from the gain source so much as make sure it’s not a gain drain. 1 method to do this is to cut out the middleman by placing your bets in a market like Betfair where you can actually act as a price-maker as opposed to a price-taker. As it’s a market, you can not always get paid to put on the bets you want, but occasionally you can, and you pay less play than you would if you moved to a traditional bookie. You can also decrease the vig by shopping around and gambling with all the best priced bookie, rather than going to the same place for all your stakes.
There are other things too, but these are the key things you want to manage. So the bookie makes money by incorporating the gains from knowing the chances better to the gains from being paid the vig. The way you’re going to earn money is by making sure the losses from paying the vig are less than the gains from knowing the chances better. It is just maths.
You even have an advantage over the bookies that will assist you. That’s the benefit of not having to bet. Bookies are expected to make economies on a whole host of sporting occasions, and honor those costs if somebody tries to bet on them. You do not have to do that. You can concentrate on the stuff which you are able to understand better, that you have good data on, that you have versions that provide good odds estimates on. It’s possible to sit and wait for the times the bookies get it wrong, because among all of the noise they do make it wrong sometimes. You wait, and you wait, and you wait as long as you want to wait. Then you wager. And you also do so together with the odds in your favour and vig removed as much as possible.
If you do so, then you are taking advantage of the same things that the bookie uses to win consistently. And as we all know,”the house always wins”.
Does this sound like a lot of work? Maybe, right? It’s not easy. It isn’t quick. It is not a get-rich-quick strategy. * However, this is absolutely a way to win consistently in sports gambling.
Read more here: http://operationsmanager.com/?p=11225