What is the key to successful sports betting?

That is the chart of William Hill’s annual earnings and profits for the last four years. If I were less incompetent at using Google to regain historic results I would have gone back further, and you’d have seen the consequences goes far beyond the last four decades. They always make money. They’re a money-making machine.

They are a bookmaker. You know how”the house always wins”? Well that is exactly what this graph is showing you.

People who have not moved on in disgust in the bait-and-switch answer you think you are reading are probably asking something such as”ha bloody ha Groves…you know that is not exactly what the question means. This means”how can I win consistently in sports betting?”

I do understand that, yes. And is a point here. The purpose is that if the bookmakers always win, which basically they do, all you have to do to win is do what the bookmakers do.

Alright, so today you are maybe thinking”that is all very well smartarse, but I’m not just planning to go out and start a chain of betting shops over the next several decades and slowly build up a profitable company today am I?” (ah I see! You would like to always win, however you do not wish to actually have to do any work to make it happen? Gotcha).

That is missing the point however. You do not have to start a chain of betting shops, fortunately. You need to recognize the underlying reasons why the bookie wins, and copy those.

Reason number one that the bookie wins: He does his homework. He uses information that enables him to estimate, with better accuracy than the people he is gambling with, what the true chances of any specific outcome are. He’s all the data he could find, and he’s computer models to analyse that information.

All of this you can do yourself. You just have to be prepared to put that campaign in. It is not easy to accumulate this much data, and construct these types of models, but it’s possible. I’ve done it. It may be done.

Reason number two the bookie wins: He”charges” individuals to bet. The odds that he offers do not add as much as an estimated probability of 100%, the rest being potential profit for the bookie (known as the”vig” from the US). Based upon the event he may be charging two or three percentage points (so on average he will make $2 for each $100 wager ) to a few hundred percent points (so on average he’ll earn $200 for every $100 bet). It depends on his certainty about his estimate, how dodgy he’s, how dumb he thinks his punters are, how much rivalry he has, and so on.

You can kind of do this yourself, but it is not quite so easy. Fortunately you do not have to benefit from this gain source so much as ensure it is not a profit drain. One method to do this is to cut out the middleman by placing your bets on a market like Betfair where you can actually function as a price-maker as opposed to a price-taker. As it is an exchange, you can’t always get paid to put on the stakes you desire, but sometimes you can, and overall you definitely pay less to play than you would if you moved to a traditional bookie. You can also decrease the vig by shopping around and gambling with the best priced bookie, instead of going to the same spot for all your stakes.

There are other things also, but those are the key things you need to manage. So the bookie makes money by adding the profits from understanding the odds better to the gains from being compensated the vig. The way you are going to earn money is by making certain that the losses from paying the vig are significantly less than the profits from knowing the chances better. It’s just maths.

You have an edge over the bookies that will assist you. That is the advantage of not having to bet. Bookies are expected to produce markets on a whole host of sporting occasions, and honor those prices if someone tries to wager on them. You do not have to do that. You can focus on the stuff which you are able to understand better, which you’ve got good data on, which you have versions that provide good chances estimates on. It’s possible to sit and await the occasions the bookies get it wrong, because among all the noise they do make it wrong occasionally. You wait, and you wait, and you wait as long as you want to wait. Then you bet. And you also do this together with all the odds in your favor and vig removed as much as possible.

Should you do so, then you are using the very same things that the bookie utilizes to win consistently. And as all of us know,”the house always wins”.

Does this seem like a lot of effort? Maybe, right? It is not easy. It’s not fast. It’s not a get-rich-quick strategy. * But this is surely a way to win consistently at sports betting.

Read more here: http://operationsmanager.com/?p=11225