That is the chart of William Hill’s annual earnings and gains for the last four decades. If I had been incompetent at using Google to retrieve historic results I would have gone back further, and you would have seen the consistency goes far beyond the last four years. They constantly make money. They are a money-making machine.
They’re a bookmaker. You know how”the house always wins”? Well that’s exactly what this graph is showing you.
Those of you who have not moved on in disgust in the bait-and-switch response you feel you’re reading are probably asking something like”ha bloody ha Groves…you know that is not exactly what the question means. This means”how do I win consistently in sports betting?”
I do understand that, yes. And there’s a point here. The point is that if the bookmakers always win, which basically they perform, all you have to do to win is do what the bookmakers do.
Alright, so today you are maybe thinking”that is all very well smartarse, but I’m not just planning to go out and start a chain of betting shops over the next several decades and slowly build up a profitable business today am I?” (ah I visit! You would like to always win, however you don’t wish to actually have to do some job to make it take place? Gotcha).
That’s missing the point however. You do not have to open a chain of betting shops, fortunately. You have to recognize the underlying reasons why the bookie wins, and copy those.
Reason number one that the bookie wins: He does his homework. He utilizes information that empowers him to gauge, with greater accuracy than the folks he’s betting with, what the true odds of any specific outcome are. He’s all the information he can find, and he’s computer models to analyse that data.
All of this you can do yourself. You just need to be ready to put that effort in. It’s not easy to accumulate this much data, and build these types of versions, but it is possible. It has been done by me. It can be done.
Reason number two that the bookie wins: He”fees” individuals to bet. The odds he offers don’t add up to an estimated probability of 100%, the remainder being potential profit for its bookie (known as the”vig” from the US). Depending upon the event he may be charging a couple of percentage points (so on average he will make $2 for every $100 wager ) to a couple of hundred percent points (so on average he’ll earn $200 for each $100 bet). It is dependent upon his certainty around his quote, how dodgy he’s, how dumb he believes his punters are, just how much competition he has, and so on.
You can sort of do that yourself, but it’s not quite so simple. Fortunately you don’t have to take advantage of the gain source so much as ensure it’s not a profit drain. 1 method to do this is to cut out the middleman by placing your bets on a market like Betfair at which you can actually function as a price-maker rather than a price-taker. Because it is a market, you can not always get paid to put on the stakes you want, but sometimes you can, and you definitely pay much less play than you would if you went into a traditional bookie. You might even reduce the vig by shopping around and betting with the best priced bookie, instead of going to the same place for all your bets.
There are several other things also, but those are the key things that you want to deal with. Hence that the bookie makes money by incorporating the profits from knowing the chances better to the gains from being compensated the vig. The way you are going to earn money is by making certain that the losses from paying the vig are significantly less than the gains from knowing the odds better. It is just maths.
You even have an advantage over the bookies to help you. That is the advantage of not having to wager. Bookies are anticipated to make economies on a whole host of sporting occasions, and honour those prices if someone attempts to bet on them. You don’t need to do that. You can focus on the stuff which you are able to understand better, that you’ve got great data on, that you’ve got models that provide good chances estimates on. You can sit and await the occasions the bookies make it wrong, because one of all of the noise they do get it wrong occasionally. You wait, and you wait, and you wait as long as you need to wait. Then you bet. And you do so with all the odds in your favour and vig eliminated as much as possible.
If you do this, then you are using the same things that the bookie utilizes to win consistently. And as all of us know,”the house always wins”.
Does this seem like too much effort? Maybe, right? It’s not easy. It’s not fast. It’s not a get-rich-quick scheme. * However, this is surely a way to win consistently in sports gambling.
Read more here: http://operationsmanager.com/?p=11225