This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Florida. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to acquire a great deal of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will try to receive my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw 50-100 entries at that $25k decoration, then I will likely take a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get into a couple plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter anywhere this fight goes. I think Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking a guillotine. Other than that, I think we have a pretty safe win here with Roberts and that is what I am searching for. I want the safer wins in cash and that I can worry about who is going to score the highest in GPPs. I believe we can get away from him in the GPPs at his cost because when he sets up 90 DK points in a win then that won’t win $25k. It will help us triumph in cash games though and I’d be amazed if he had a low scoring win here. I think he’s good for 80-100 points here and I am totally okay with that in my money lineup.
GPP drama of the week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is my GPP play of the week and he’s the highest ITD chances on the card at -222. This is a setup struggle for him to receive a knockout and I believe that is most likely going to take place in the very first round. That should place Hardy over 100 things and I am interested in that. Hardy will be one of my top plays of this week, but he’s GPP just for me. We can not trust him enough for money games, so that is why I like Roberts longer in that format. I really do think Hardy can outscore Roberts even though they win, and he is $200 cheaper. That may knock Roberts off the very best lineup and in spite of higher ownership we could win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup as long as he gets the first KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is lined at -130 and that’s too good for me to pass in GPPs.
Underdog drama of the week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no longer the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they are released. We get Teixeira here for 400 cheaper than Cutelaba and he is favored to get the win. In addition, I think he can win in the 1st round with a submission and score above 90 points. That would give him a fantastic chance at being on the perfect lineup. I’ll be targeting both sides of the struggle in GPPs because I don’t expect it to go all 3 rounds, but value on Teixeira is what I like the most and we have to have”underdogs” within our DK lineups together with the $50k salary cap. I think the obvious path to success for Glover is on the ground and that is what I expect his game must be. I enjoy him to get a entry win if he is able to land takedowns and he’ll be one of my greatest possessed underdogs this week.
Fade of this week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I know folks were expecting me to put Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She is a strong fade too… However, I’m going with Esparza as my fade this week and I have zero lineups including her. In general, Esparza is a decent wrestler and we like wrestlers in DraftKings. I just don’t see wrestling in her very best interest against Jandiroba and that I believe she uses her wrestling in shield to attempt and keep this fight on the feet. Each of the threat is on the ground in this matchup and Carla gets the better boxing of both. I believe she could acquire a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I would guess it puts up about ~60 DK points. That isn’t going to cut it 8.2k so I just don’t see the way she ends up about the 25k lineup this week even if she does win, and that’s why she is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 69-44 to get +224.83un (+$22,483) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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