This weekend we have a 13-fight card then long 3-week break. I’m excited to have UFC back and that I am ready to win some cash on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC debut so it’s always nice once you are already acquainted with the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings competitions are not the best, but there’s still a lot of cash to be obtained. I’ll personally be pursuing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those big prizes. Here are a Couple of plays I like this week as well as my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is how I’ll be starting my cash lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is filled with activity and his three UFC fights have been Fight Of The Year kind fights. Those kinds of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Notably cash games since we can lock in a win and receive all the points in the best battle on the card. Usually 4 wins will find the business done in money games and we will get over 100 points on this battle. So, with that triumph locked in, we simply have to find 3 other people we feel good about.
GPP drama of this week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It is tough to need to pay $9.5k for a man like Barberena if you can just pay an additional $200 to get a -1000 preferred in Anders. But, I believe that’s what most folks will do and that is what makes Barberena a fantastic GPP play. I believe we will get him in a marginally lower ownership due to his massive salary, and he has a very good chance at getting a 1st round triumph. If he can find a 1st round KO then he’ll have at least 100 points so he will pay off that high salary. If you believe Ellenberger is completely faded, I believe that you should get some Barberena in your lineups. His ITD lineup is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he is a shell of his old self. I believe Barberena does pick up an end inside this struggle so I will throw him some GPPs and hope he’s under possessed.
Underdog play of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the effortless worth play of the week. Presently, Fili is your betting favorite at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is only $7.5k. I love taking that worth when it’s available so I presume he’s in play in all formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments together with all the value we are getting on him, but I am willing to eat that chalk and that I do not want to get burned by completely fading that value. I do think this is the toughest struggle on the card to call, but if Fili keeps using his wrestling I think he will have a good chance at winning this fight. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I’d favor MJ although not by a lot. At $7.5k we don’t need a huge score from Fili so any win will likely do the trick. I am not going to pass on this value and I think he is the simple underdog of this week on DK.
Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my personal bias but I am not going to possess Drew Dober in any of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my money lineup. Dober has only proceeded for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just seeking to attack. I think that this is going to be a striking battle as well and I think it will be nearer than the chances signal. At $8.9k I believe we’ll require a complete from him to wind up on the winning GPP lineup and I don’t see that happening. Should you think Dober can get a KO, then you ought to be playing him. I will just be paying up elsewhere because I’m not sure he could get that complete and that I wouldn’t be shocked if he lost the struggle. I will say that I never seem to utilize Dober at DraftKings, therefore I could get burnt again but I will stick with my Dober evaporate and he’ll be my fade of the week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on each fight, my personal approaches & recommendations, and my pick prediction for every fight then you can find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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